Skyscrapers: Inevitable Future or Temporary Fad

A brief excursion into history

Skyscrapers have become the pinnacle of technological progress. The basis for the implementation of such bold solutions was laid in ancient times, when the first piston pump for water and the first elevator were invented. Even in Ancient Rome, people actively used them to build two-level and more buildings, creating the maximum comfort for life at that time. Moreover, the height of some ancient Roman insulae, i.e. multi-story residential buildings, reached 25 meters, which at that time was 10 floors! Most of the rooms in such insulae were rented out. At the same time, housing on the upper floors was usually rented by the poor, and the lower floors were available only to wealthy members of society.

Much time has passed since then, during which technical inventions have continued to improve. The discovery of the possibility of using steam and the advent of electricity played a special role in this process. Over time, the improvement of elevators and water pumps turned the top floors from cheap to prestigious, and skyscrapers became elite real estate.

The first skyscraper in the modern sense appeared in Chicago in 1885. It was the building of the "Home Insurance Society", the height of which also amounted to 10 floors. But this already corresponded to 42 meters. Its architect was William Jenney.

Is the future skyscrapers?

This position is defended by the authors of the monograph "The City of Tomorrow", urbanist Matthew Claudel and architect Carlo Ratti. They have collected statistical data that is literally astounding: every day the number of city residents increases by 250,000 people. Accordingly, every month a new London or almost two St. Petersburgs appears on the planet.

2008 became another milestone in the history of mankind. It was in this year that the population of cities exceeded the number of rural residents. And according to WHO estimates, by 2050, 75% of the world's population will be city dwellers.

Such predictions are likely to come true. Just look at China, where the number of megalopolis residents has increased by 500 million people over the last 30 years, which roughly amounts to three times the population of Russia.

Accordingly, both native city dwellers and those who have recently moved to the metropolis need housing. The time has passed when cities expanded exclusively in width; now they are growing upwards. Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the opinion of Matthew Claudel and Carlo Ratti, and the 21st century promises to become the "century of skyscrapers".

To avoid confusion in terminology, let us clarify that skyscrapers are buildings with a height of 150 m. By the end of 2020, there were already more than 5,300 structures of this type worldwide, with 70% located in Asian countries. Another 740 were under construction. The coronavirus pandemic also contributed to this sector of human activity, as a result of which some construction projects were frozen. Later, after the epidemic subsided, some of them were resumed, although not all.

The fact that more than 40% of the skyscrapers that exist today were built after 2000, when the urgency of the issue of vacant housing in cities began to grow exponentially, also supports the opinion that the 21st century could become the century of skyscrapers. Experts predict that by 2050 the number of skyscrapers will grow to 41,000. Thus, their number will exceed the number of existing buildings of this type by 7 times.

Not only the number of skyscrapers is increasing, but also their height. Literally, 2 decades ago the average height was 285 m, and today this figure has already grown to 385 m. As a result, the so-called Moore's Law for skyscrapers appeared. According to it, after 2000 their average height has increased by 1.8% annually.

Harbingers of an economic downturn

Skyscrapers leave no one indifferent. But some look at them from a professional point of view. Thus, in 1999, Hong Kong economist Andrew Lawrence wrote an article in which he presented the concept of the "skyscraper index" to the public. It immediately entered into circulation, although quite a few analysts from different countries immediately dubbed it the "skyscraper curse".

E. Lawrence will trace the connection between the construction of the tallest building in the world and economic downturns and crises. The logic of his reasoning is simple and clear. With a stable financial situation, investors strive to create and implement a project to build a record-breaking skyscraper. After all, this decision promises huge profits, despite the initial high cost of the undertaking.

But the construction process, even if there are no hitches and stable financing, takes at least 3-5 years. Accordingly, the commissioning of the building falls precisely at the height of the next economic crisis.

Therefore, the start of construction of the new, largest building in the world is considered a harbinger of economic decline. Let's not be unfounded and provide historical information.

Bank panic (1907)

It was preceded by the construction of the Singer Building and the Metropolitan Life Tower (New York). The towers were to become the tallest in the world. The height of the first was 186.5 m, and it was put into operation in 1908, i.e. a year after the start of the economic crisis. The height of the Metropolitan Life Tower, the construction of which began later, is 213 m. It was commissioned in 1909.

The Great Depression of 1929–1933

On the eve of one of the largest crises in the United States, construction began on the Chrysler Building, a 320-meter-tall building. Work on its construction began in 1928, and the opening took place after the Great Depression began, in 1930. During the same period, the famous 443-meter Empire State Building was laid. Construction began in 1929, and it was put into operation in 1931.

It is very significant that the Empire State Building opened at the height of the Great Depression. Therefore, for ten years, no more than 20% of the space in it was rented. It is not surprising that the city residents nicknamed the tower the empty building. The owners, in order to increase the value of the space in it, even had to force employees to turn on the lights on the empty floors in order to imitate active business life. In the 40s, the situation improved somewhat, but until 1950 the skyscraper did not bring profit to the owners.

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the Nixon shock, namely the refusal of the 37th US President Nixon to exchange the dollar for gold in 1971.

The World Trade Center, which was started in New York in 1966 and was more often called the Twin Towers and which was destroyed in the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, was opened in 1973. Its South Tower was 415 m high, and the North Tower was 526 m. It was planned as the largest in the world. Four years later, the Sears Tower (Chicago) was laid. It surpassed the North Tower of the World Trade Center by only 1 m and was also put into operation in 1973, i.e., at the height of the crisis.

Asian financial crisis of 1997

In 1992, construction began on the well-known Petronas skyscrapers in Malaysia, also known as the Twin Towers. Their height reached 451.9 m. They were only commissioned in 1998, a year after the start of a major economic crisis.

Global financial crisis of 2008-2009

In 2004, the foundation stone was laid for a skyscraper that to this day remains the tallest building on the entire planet – the Burj Khalifa (Dubai). Its height is a dizzying 828 m. The construction took 6 years and the tower was opened in 2010, i.e. again immediately after a severe economic crisis, this time shaking up the entire world.

Default of 1998

This financial crisis is well known to all Russians who are now over 30. After the economy stabilized in the post-Soviet space in 1996, the idea of the great Russian architect Boris Thor was enthusiastically accepted - to build a huge business center and park on the territory of the industrial zone. The project was called "Moscow-City" , but the sudden default of the 1998 type significantly spoiled the plans. The construction was practically frozen and acquired a second life only in the early 2000s. At the same time, the project was repeatedly reviewed, adjusted, and ultimately little remained in it from the original idea of B. Thor.

Subsequently, economic growth allowed for active development of the former industrial zone, and new skyscrapers began to open almost every year. But even today, the territory of Moscow City and nearby areas is not fully developed, new grandiose projects are planned, and therefore, perhaps, a new crisis is just around the corner.

Coronavirus crisis (2020–2021)

The construction of the grand Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia took place during this period. According to the project, the height of this skyscraper should be more than 1 km, or more precisely 1007 m. The first construction work began in 2013, and its completion was scheduled for 2018. But, as often happens with projects of this type, the deadline was postponed to 2019. And as we remember, at the end of this year, the first reports of a new deadly infection and its rapid spread appeared. Panic gripped the world, and the construction of Jeddah stopped due to financial difficulties. There is no new information yet about the expected continuation of construction and the timing of commissioning.

Why We Can't Escape Skyscrapers

There are very good reasons for the active construction of skyscrapers. First of all, it is the high cost of land in cities. If you build a multi-storey building on an expensive site, the investment will pay off when you reach a certain height (the value directly depends on the price of the land). When you overcome this level, the building will start to bring in profit. Therefore, despite the high cost of building skyscrapers, their construction is profitable and can not only fully recoup the initial investment in purchasing land, paying for labor, materials, etc., but also bring in tangible profit.

The highest prices are for the following plots:

• located in the city center, for example, Manhattan Island in the USA or Moscow City in Russia;

• in cities with significant land shortages, such as Hong Kong.

By the way, Hong Kong is the world leader in the number of skyscrapers. On its small territory, 546 buildings are crowded, the height of which exceeds the 150 m mark.

Moscow-City cannot compete with it in terms of the number of towers, but there is still room for several buildings. And although the business center is already full of life and looks finished, it has not yet taken shape. In 2022, there are 46 skyscrapers in the entire Russian capital, of which 12 are located in Moscow-City . In the near future, the "Russian Manhattan" will be replenished with 3 more towers: Grand Tower (Moscow Tower) , One Tower and MFC "City-20". High-rise buildings are also actively being built in the areas closest to the business center. In particular, on the neighboring Presnenskaya Embankment, there are already almost completed 3 residential towers Capital Towers . Their commissioning is scheduled for 2022.

Profitability and its impact on building heights

The construction of skyscrapers requires the introduction of new, complex and expensive technologies. Today, old multi-story brick buildings are being torn down to make way for glass and concrete giants. But even on the most expensive site, it is unprofitable to build an infinitely high building. The profitability of any tower is subject to a U-graph. It shows that the profit from increasing the number of floors grows only up to a certain point, and then sharply decreases. Therefore, too high skyscrapers do not pay off.

Back in the early 20th century, the average ceiling of a skyscraper's profitability was calculated in the United States. It was 63 floors. Of course, this figure may vary slightly depending on the country and its level of economy, but the changes are insignificant. This is due to the fact that up to the 63rd floor, the useful areas obtained help to radically increase the return in the future. But subsequent increase in the number of floors leads to additional costs for strengthening the structure's frame, reducing its sway from the wind, organizing air conditioning and ventilation systems, raising water to the upper floors, etc.

It has been calculated that every 10 extra floors adds an additional 10% to the cost of the project. This causes the projects to be revised and the construction of a number of floors, spires, etc. to be abandoned. That is why the height of approximately 70% of all existing skyscrapers in the world is less than 200 m. Most investors are pragmatic and value profit more than the opportunity to satisfy their own vanity.

Why are economically unprofitable towers being built?

The remaining 20%, especially the TOP-20 tallest buildings in the world, are a tribute to prestige, status and ambitions, particularly political ones. They are designed to make a profit not by covering costs with sales of square meters, but by attracting tourists. Therefore, the tallest skyscrapers in the world are turning into tourist attractions. And to attract visitors, they use a variety of methods: observation decks, walks with insurance at dizzying heights, all kinds of attractions, glass floors, etc.

This is what happened with the Burj Khalifa and the Malaysian Twin Towers. The transformation of Dubai and Kuala Lumpur into skyscraper cities has led to a sharp influx of tourists. As a result, both megacities quickly became some of the most popular tourist destinations. If we take statistics from the pre-Covid period, the ratio of tourists to locals looked like this:

• Dubai – 15.3 million tourists for a population of 2.7 million;

• Kuala Lumpur – 12 million tourists to 1.7 million local residents;

• Paris – 18 million tourists for a population of 2.2 million.

But in the matter of record-breaking one should not forget about the vanity of individual politicians. Having analyzed the top twenty tallest skyscrapers in the world, it becomes clear that only 4 of them were built in countries with democratic regimes and relatively free. The rest are located in countries with monarchies, autocracies and either satisfy the ambitions of leaders or become an element of "party politics".

China is a shining example of strong-willed decisions

Only the Communist Party of China has the ability to ensure the mass construction of skyscrapers, which is what it did before Xi Jinping came to power. There are more than 1,500 commissioned towers in the country, and 5,300 in the world. At the same time, 23 of the TOP-50 tallest buildings are located here. Thus, China alone has almost 30% of the world's completed skyscrapers and almost half of the record holders.

But in 2021, the ruling party banned the construction of high-rise buildings over 500 m and imposed restrictions on the construction of buildings over 250 m. With this decision by the Communist Party of China, he voluntarily dropped out of the unofficial race.

It was dictated by the peculiarities of the policy of Xi Jinping, who became the leader of the country in 2012. Immediately after coming to power, he decisively changed the political course of China and directed all efforts to return to traditional values. After only 2 years of rule, Xi Jinping decided to abandon strange architecture. And 2 years later, the Central Committee issued a decree according to which architectural excesses became unacceptable. As a result, all buildings built in China from that moment on must be "economical, environmentally friendly and pleasing to the eye." This entailed a rapid revision of existing projects. In particular, the spire of the leading skyscraper "Pian'an" was removed, which is why it immediately ceased to be the tallest in the world, etc.

The decision of the Chinese authorities is understandable and justified. Against the backdrop of economic growth, the country began to build skyscraper after skyscraper, with each project being crazier than the other, and many of them remained unfinished. There was also active copying of famous European and American buildings. In 2021, the ruling forces even issued a separate decree prohibiting the making of copies. As we can see, politics does not always follow vanity, forgetting about common sense, and China is an excellent example of this.

Therefore, the TOP-5 Chinese towers are stable and will not be subject to changes in the near future. It includes:

• 632-meter Shanghai Tower;

• 599-meter multifunctional center in Shenzhen;

• 530-metre financial centre towers in Guangzhou and Tianjin;

• The 528-meter Beijing Tower.

With China out of the skyscraper building race, the centers of high-rise construction have moved to Dubai, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen what the Persian Gulf monarchs will surprise the public with.

Thus, the construction of skyscrapers is justified in many cases, but can also be a clear sign of "growth disease". It was first "diagnosed" in the USA, then the "virus" was transmitted to Europe and Russia, "mutated" and hit China in a severe form. It remains to wait for new outbreaks in other parts of the world...