In the second quarter of 2026, the vacancy rate in Moscow City reached 17.4%—a ten-year high. Of these 17.4 percentage points, 15.9 were attributable to the one-time removal of a single property—the Moscow Towers complex, which Russian Railways purchased in 2024 to house 18,000 headquarters employees and subsequently put up for sale.
According to Nikoliers’ estimates, Moscow Towers accounts for 83% of all available space in the cluster. CORE.XP cites a figure of “more than 80%.” If you exclude this property from the calculation, the vacancy rate drops to between 3% and 5.2%, depending on which methodology you use.
Hence the distinction between the “old” and “new” City, with vacancy rates of 1.6% versus 17.2%.
Key metrics: what is confirmed, and what relies on a single source
| Metric | Value | Source | How reliable is it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vacancy rate for the entire cluster | 17.4% | Nikoliers, Q2 2026 | Confirmed by two publications |
| Moscow Towers’ share of available space | 83% | Nikoliers · CORE.XP | Two independent sources |
| Vacancy rate excluding Moscow Towers | 3%–5.2% | CMWP · CORE.XP · IBC · Nikoliers | Range of four estimates |
| Class A vacancy rate in Moscow | 9.3% | NF Group, as of July 1, 2026 | Accurate comparison basis |
| Average rental rate in the cluster | 64,500 ₽/m² | CMWP, 1H 2026 | Single source; class and VAT not specified |
| Rent range for towers | 60,000–80,000 ₽/m² | Nikoliers | Prime segment — 84,3 thousand |
| Average rate in Moscow | 32,000 rubles/m² | “Kommersant,” July 8, 2026 | City premium is double |
| Sale price, completed buildings | 548,000 ₽/m² | RBC, August 28, 2026 | Excluding VAT |
| Sale price, under construction | 618,000–843,000 ₽/m² | CORE.XP · Nikoliers | A 1.4-fold variation among consultants |
| Share of space available for lease in office buildings under construction | 48% | CMWP, 1Q 2026 | Half of the square meters are still looking for a buyer |
The last row of the table deserves special attention. The image of a completely sold-out “New City” appears alongside an admission in the same article: 48% of the space in complexes under construction remains on the market. We provided a detailed breakdown of rental rates for each tower in our March analysis of office leasing—there, the median open-market rates reach 127,000 rubles per square meter per year at “Federation.” The transaction-weighted average is half that amount, and both figures are accurate.
“The Last Tower” has been on the market since 2020
The argument that land is running out sounds convincing. A review of the archives shows that it is raised regularly.
- July 2020 — iCity, developed by MR Group, was named “the City’s last tower.”
- May 2023 — The tower near the Bagration Bridge received the same designation. Moscow’s chief architect, Sergey Kuznetsov, provided the rationale: it is the last project integrated into the underground infrastructure of the Moscow International Business Center (MIDC).
- August 2026—the CESAR TOWER project on Lot No. 20.
Three projects, three justifications, three sales launches. This phrasing has served as a marketing tool for six consecutive years.
Plot No. 20 is a story of its own. It was last available in 2014. The official website of PJSC “CITY” still lists a project profile for it: construction start—2015, 51 stories, 228 meters, 174,300 square meters, completion—TBD. The project was led by Solvers Estate; completion was planned for 2018, but construction stalled. In October 2024, Sezar Group purchased plots No. 4 and No. 20 from USM and Solvers; the parties did not disclose the transaction amount.
The land management structure through which the plots had been allocated for a quarter of a century was dismantled earlier: in 2022, PJSC “CITY” ceased managing the MMDTS territory and terminated the land lease agreements.
There is land nearby. But there is no money for it
In the summer of 2026, two auctions in the immediate vicinity of City ended with zero bids.
Lot No. 15 on Antonova-Ovseyenko Street—9,100 square meters for a multifunctional complex up to 405 meters tall with a floor area of 303,300 square meters. The city demolished the existing structures, finalized the necessary procedures, and set a starting price of 12.27 billion rubles. In May, consultants publicly predicted fierce competition and a price increase to 15–18 billion. On August 14, the auction was not held again: no bids were received.
Moscow Towers — On May 21, Russian Railways received no bids for the complex, valued at 280.8 billion rubles. Experts had estimated the threshold for commercial interest at 180–200 billion.
With a key interest rate of 14% per annum, projects with a payback period of a decade are hampered by the cost of capital. The shortage in the City is of a financial nature. Available sites nearby have been prepared and are awaiting investors: the Presnensky Ring, “City-2,” and “City-North,” as well as residential skyscrapers in “Kamushki”—all of which have been granted KRT status. We’ve compiled a map of this expansion in our article on the Greater City.
528,000 square meters: who’s building and when will they be completed?
This figure comes from Nikoliers and refers to the leasable office space in six projects scheduled for completion by the end of the decade. The total area of these same properties is approaching one million square meters. A number of reprints attributed the 528,000 figure to RBC itself—this attribution is incorrect.
| Project | Developer | Offices, m² | Completion | Sales Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tower by the Bagration Bridge | “Gals-Development” | 164,100 | Q2 2030 | Fully acquired by RVB to accommodate 17,000 employees |
| SEZAR TOWER | Sezar Group | 126,895 | Q3 2030 | For Sale |
| TOP TOWER | MR Group | 96,700 | 2029–2030 | For sale, starting at 86.8 million ₽ |
| CITY-4 (“Empire,” Phase II) | Sezar Group | 73,400 | First half of 2027 | Moscow Exchange purchased 30,000 m²; Parus is bidding for the second building |
| One Tower | MR Group | 65,000 | Q4 2030 | For sale |
| Five properties in total | — | 526,095 | Through 2030 | More than 45% is intended for end owners |
The top three lines account for 73% of the total volume. The discrepancy from the stated 528,000 is 1,905 square meters: the sixth project has not been identified in public sources.
Competitors’ estimates are broader: NF Group projects 538,100 square meters by 2032, while CORE.XP estimates 725,000 square meters of announced projects, 31% of which have already been allocated and will not enter the open market. In October 2025, the figure cited was approximately 700,000 square meters: at that time, the estimate was based on announced projects, whereas now it is based on projects under construction. The discrepancies stem from the scope and timeframe of the estimates.
Sold square meters and occupied square meters are different metrics
The market model has changed. NF Group puts it bluntly: new office projects in the cluster are being developed before obtaining occupancy permits, primarily for sale and to a single buyer. According to CORE.XP data, 79% of purchases in the first half of 2026 were for properties under construction. The average size of a purchased lot tripled over the year—from 472 to approximately 1,600 square meters.
iCITY shows what happens next. Space Tower has been almost entirely sold in units, and the occupancy permit was received in July 2025. The vacancy rate as of September 2025 was 23.5%. The units have been sold to investors and are awaiting tenants.
The actual dividing line runs between the building intended for the owner and the building intended for investors. The former enters the market fully occupied. The latter adds to the secondary submarket, which is not yet reflected in consultants’ reports.
Transportation has added a selling point
On April 16, 2026, the MCD-1 station opened in the business center: transfer time was reduced from 15 minutes to 5, and the hub’s stated capacity is approximately 100,000 transfers per day. A direct connection to the Aeroexpress to Sheremetyevo Airport was established. Since June 2024, however, the BKL stations “Delovoy Center” and “Shelepikha” have been closed; their reopening is tied to the launch of the Rublevo-Arkhangelskaya Line. Current routes can be found on the pages detailing how to get to Moscow City and the parking lots, along with traffic maps.
Three Scenarios by 2030
The market is consolidating
CORE.XP projects a vacancy rate in Moscow City of 4–6% over the next two to three years, while Nikoliers forecasts a rent of 86,000 rubles per square meter by 2027. Moscow Towers will either be sold as a single lot or taken over by Russian Railways itself—in which case 17.4% of the market would be absorbed in a single transaction. A weak spot: the historical average annual transaction volume in the Moscow International Business Center (MIBC) is 85,000 square meters; at this pace, it would take about three years to fill Moscow Towers with tenants.
The split is cemented
More than 45% of the offices currently under construction have already been allocated to specific owners. Dmitry Zhidkov of Ricci estimates that by 2026, 68% of announced new construction projects in Moscow will be completed through sales, as the cost of debt financing has reduced the appeal of building for rental purposes. Under this model, the vacancy rate no longer accurately reflects reality. A key indicator to watch is the share of space currently on the market in complexes under construction, which stands at 48% today.
The Center of Gravity Is Shifting
Bright Rich | CORFAC, in collaboration with Upside Development, reported in August 2026: transactions in “Moscow City” are one-third lower than they were three years ago, and the cluster’s share of total space acquired in Moscow is 0.1%. The share of decentralized districts in absorption grew from 77.3% to 87.7%. IBC estimates the potential of Bolshoi City at 6.7 million square meters of office space by 2035, with 645 hectares zoned for commercial real estate. The limiting factor for this scenario is the same as for the others: no one has purchased the prepared site on Antonova-Ovseyenko Street.
What this means in practice
For a tenant looking for a ready-to-move-in office in a tower with an established reputation, the market is closed: only about 3–5% of units in the historic part of the cluster are available, and competition for them is higher than the cluster-wide average suggests. Current listings are compiled in the sections on office rentals and rentals in “Imperia.”
For buyers, a window of opportunity has opened that did not exist five years ago: offices are being sold in blocks at the foundation stage, with a value appreciation of 30–60% over the construction period—and in some cases, as much as double the original price. The price for this appreciation is a four- to five-year time horizon and the risk of ending up with space that you’ll have to lease out yourself. The Space Tower case shows that this risk is a reality.
For the market as a whole, the immediate crossroads boils down to the fate of a single lot. As long as Moscow Towers remains unsold, the statistics for “Moscow City” primarily reflect the state of this complex.
Sources: “RBC Real Estate”; Nikoliers; CORE.XP; CMWP; NF Group; IBC Real Estate; Bright Rich | CORFAC International; “Vedomosti”; “Kommersant”; PJSC “CITY”; mos.ru. Data is current as of August 2026.
